When former U.S. President Donald Trump appeared in court in Washington, D.C., on August 3, 2023, it marked a significant moment in American political history. For the first time, a former U.S. president was accused of interfering in the certification process of the 2020 election results on January 6, 2021.

The 45th U.S. president was charged by Special Counsel Jack Smith with four indictments: conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of an official proceeding, and conspiracy against citizens’ voting rights.

The riot at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, was one of the most controversial and impactful moments in American political history. The unrest erupted after President Donald Trump delivered a speech near the White House, in which he once again claimed—without concrete evidence—that the 2020 election was rigged and that he was the rightful winner.

Many analysts and political leaders believe that Trump’s statements and actions before, during, and after the election contributed to the tensions that escalated into the riot. Since the November 2020 election, Trump and some of his supporters have repeatedly insisted on widespread electoral fraud, despite these claims being debunked by courts, election officials, and the U.S. Department of Justice.

As a result of this incident, Trump became the first U.S. president to be impeached twice by Congress. One of the charges was “inciting insurrection.” Although he was later acquitted by the Senate, which was then controlled by the Republican Party, the impeachment underscored how many members of Congress—especially from the Democratic Party—held him responsible for the riot.

However, the January 6 incident did not diminish Trump’s popularity in American politics. In fact, his support, particularly among Republican voters, increased. He continued to push the narrative, supported by conservative media outlets like Fox News, that he was a victim of election fraud in 2020.

Trump’s political resilience has proven strong, and his efforts have paid off. He is currently the leading Republican candidate for the 2024 presidential election. According to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, Trump holds a significant lead over his closest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, with a margin of 54% to 17%.

In addition to the case involving the 2020 election, Trump has been indicted in two other cases: allegedly keeping classified government documents and falsifying business records to cover up hush money payments to an adult film actress.

Trump is now facing five upcoming trials—three in New York related to hush money payments, a civil trial over his business practices, and a defamation case filed by a woman who accused him of sexual assault. Another trial will take place in Florida concerning the alleged mishandling of classified documents.

With multiple legal cases against him, Trump has launched an aggressive campaign against U.S. law enforcement agencies, accusing federal and local prosecutors of being tools of the government to derail his presidential bid.

This “playing the victim” strategy has been effective among Republican voters. The latest New York Times/Siena College poll indicates that only 17% of Republican voters believe Trump committed a crime, while 71% consider him innocent.

Furthermore, the Biden administration has yet to deliver strong economic results. A recent CNN survey found that 51% of Americans believe the economy is declining and could worsen. As a result, Biden’s overall approval rating remains low at 41%, with 59% disapproving of his performance. This has deepened the political divide in the U.S. between Trump supporters and Biden supporters, raising concerns over the legitimacy of the country’s legal system.

The polarization in U.S. society due to the 2020 election and the ongoing delegitimization of law enforcement should serve as a warning for Indonesia as it approaches the 2024 elections, especially as political tensions in the country are already rising.

The three prospective presidential candidates—former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto—have met the minimum political party support requirements on paper. However, prolonged negotiations over power-sharing and political maneuvering among elite party members have made it difficult for candidates to finalize their vice-presidential running mates.

Reflecting on the deep polarization in U.S. society following the election, President Joko Widodo’s administration has a significant responsibility to ensure that Indonesia’s 2024 election is free and fair. Efforts to minimize vote-buying or money politics must be strengthened so that voters make decisions based on candidates’ competence, vision, and policies rather than financial incentives.

Election monitoring must be intensified to prevent voter intimidation and violence, as well as to eliminate the potential for vote manipulation. This means increasing funding and support for Indonesia’s electoral oversight institutions, such as the General Elections Commission (KPU) and the Election Supervisory Board (Bawaslu).

In the era of digitalization and artificial intelligence, the government—especially the Ministry of Communication and Information (Kominfo)—must actively combat the spread of misinformation and propaganda by enforcing strict monitoring and fact-checking mechanisms.

Furthermore, the issue of high political campaign costs remains a significant challenge for national and regional leadership candidates. A more effective system of transparency and oversight in campaign financing must be established to ensure fair competition in elections.

With these preventive measures in place, Indonesia’s 2024 election can proceed in a fair and honest manner, resulting in the election of credible, legitimate, competent, and integrity-driven national and regional leaders.

By:
Vishnu Juwono
Associate Professor in Public Governance
Faculty of Administrative Sciences, University of Indonesia

Source: Media Indonesia